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Exploring China and the Eurozone economy
Exploring China and the Eurozone economy
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Exploring China and the Eurozone economy

17/01/2019

This month, our experts, Christine Peltier and Raymond Van der Putten, from BNP Paribas Economic Research Department, examine China’s economy and the Eurozone economic perspectives

China: which growth engines could pick up the slack of exports?   

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Christine Peltier, BNP Paribas Economic Research Department

The Chinese authorities have responded to the economic slowdown and US trade barriers by loosening monetary policy and letting the yuan depreciate in recent months, while considering fiscal stimulus measures. With policies to boost demand, the economic  growth slowdown is likely to continue at a moderate pace in the short term. Any rebound in investment, however, is likely to be limited, restricted by the deterioration of export prospects, corporates’ excessive debt, industrial restructuring measures and Beijing’s determination to promote healthier development in the real estate market. As to private consumption, it may not be strong enough to pick up the slack. 

To read the full analysis: here

Eurozone: the long road to normalisation

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Raymond Van der Putten, BNP Paribas Economic Research Department

Growth has been moderating in 2018, although remaining above potential. Prices pressure are increasing as signalled by high levels  of capacity utilisation, declining unemployment and rising wages. As underlying inflation is projected to move towards the ECB’s 2%  ceiling, the central bank decided to reduce net asset purchases and possibly halt them from January 2019. Policy rates will remain  unchanged at least through the summer of 2019. The policy mix should stay expansionary and GDP growth may moderate towards its trend rate in 2019.

To read the full analysis: here

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